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The bail-out strategy is not going to succeed

By the Campaign for National Independence CNI

The American economist Paul Krugman, author of the book “The Return of Depression Economics and the Crises of 2008”, in an article that he wrote two weeks ago on the Sunday Magazine of the New York Times, with the name “Can Europe be Saved?”, said that many are of the opinion that the strategy that the European Union is implementing to prevent that some country that had adopted the euro will go bankrupt and carry out a devaluation, is not going to succeed.

And if it had to succeed, shall mean very bad times for some EU countries, because it shall cause a state of great depression in some of the countries, and is going to have a negative political impact on the EU citizens.

Krugman said that the EU is in deep crisis because the common currency, the euro, about which it so much boasted, is threatened and is caught in a vice.

Although many had dreamed that its establishment was going to bring prosperity among the European countries, there were many others who said that the euro is going to face great difficulties, because the EU countries and not united together in a manner that they could have one common currency.

But the EU leaders insisted on the advantages that the countries have a common currency, without taking into consideration of the burdens that this brings with it.

They ignored the fact that when a country has its national currency, it could choose its economic policy, mostly by lowering the interest rates and by putting more money in the economy to overcome recession.

While a country that has put aside its national currency would no longer have the flexibility to choose its economic policy.

According to Krugman, one of the reasons why the euro cannot benefit all the countries that adopted it is precisely because these countries are not united as one country, such as the United States of America.

This fact means that the citizens of a country would not want that taxes that they pay to go to make good for the debts of other countries.

According to Krugman, another reason why the euro cannot succeed in all the countries that adopted it is that in these countries there is not the same amount of taxes.

These obstacles for the success of one common currency for the EU countries were known from the every beginning of the set up of the project with the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, but the EU leaders choose to ignore them.

It is said that in the beginning the European Commission ordered the preparation of a report on the benefits of establishing a single currency, and another report on its disadvantages, but after the disadvantages were being mentioned, the Commission order was changed to report only on the advantages.

Prior to the adoption of the euro, countries were asked to pay rates of interest when they got a loan, according to what the country was considered capable to pay the loan in the agreed time, and how it would maintain the value of its currency.

The more the country was considered risky, the higher were the interest rates it had to pay.

Some countries used to pay double or triple the interests of what Germany had to pay when it got a loan.

With the establishment of the euro, all the countries that adopted it could for some time get loans at the same low interest rate, and this used to be low because the euro was considered to remain strong, and it was not thought that a country that had adopted it could go bankrupt.

Some countries which prior to adopting the euro used to pay high interest rates started getting loans much more than before with the low interest rates.

They ended up contracting much more debt than they could possible pay back, and when the time to pay back their loans matured, they found out that they were not in a position to do so if they did not pay much higher interest rates.

Ireland contracted too much debt to make good for the shortcomings of its banks.

Due to the economic recession governments started getting less income from taxes and therefore started finding it more difficult to pay back the debts that had matured, while they started paying higher interest rates when they contracted loans.

Therefore they found themselves having less income and paying more, and this fact meant that they may end up going bankrupt.

To prevent this, the European Union finally decided to set up a fund from which it could give bail-outs to the euro countries that were in economic difficulties.

A country that was going to be given a bail-out just the same had to pay a rate of interest, but the rate would be lower from that which it would have had to pay if it had to get a loan from the international financial markets.

And with the bail-outs the countries had to be bound to implement harsh austerity measures.

The bail-outs and the harsh austerity measures put the countries in a vicious circle.

Because while the income from taxes is decreased, the interests on the amounts given as bail-outs do not decrease, and the capital amount of the bail-outs will have to be paid back just the same.

In this manner, the debts of the country will continue to increase, while the countries cannot pay them back because of lower income that they will have due to the austerity measures that they had implemented.

According to Paul Krugman, some countries will end up having to devalue, if the European Union does not change its bail-outs strategy.

The euro is going to be a great obstacle for Malta’s future

Axel Webber, the Governor of the German Central Bank, who many think is going to be the next European Union Central Bank after Trichet ends his term, last week suggested to lengthen the time to 30 years for Greece and Ireland to pay back the loans that they have taken on the basis of the EU bail-outs.

But now everyone ahs agreed that neither Greece nor Ireland are going to be in a position to pay them back in the stipulated time.

There are those who insist that the Greek and Irish debts should be restructured in a manner that the countries that had loaned the money accept that they are only pay back part of the money, such as 65% of the loaned amounts.

Some insist that Greece and Ireland should be given a greater amount of loans when the time for payment is up, that is in 2013 and 2018.

At the same time the European Union decided to amend the Lisbon Treaty to set up a permanent stability mechanism for the Euro Zone that could give help to the Euro Zone countries that will be in an economic and financial crisis.

Last year the European Union had already set up a €440 billion fund for this purpose.

But it is also known that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel does not want to amount to be increased.

From his side, the British Prime Minister David Cameron, has declared that although the United Kingdom had forked out €7 billion to help Ireland, it is not going to pay more money for bail-outs that the EU may make in the future.

The Maltese representative, Prof. Edward Scicluna, who was appointed by the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament to prepare a report on the changes to the Lisbon Treaty, criticized the proposal because it has a condition that in practice it excludes Malta to be able to benefit from the permanent mechanism benefits.

This is because countries that may be in great economic and financial difficulties can be given aid if the crisis that they may be in would be a danger to the whole Euro Zone.

Since Malta’s economy is very small, it will never be a danger to the whole Euro Zone.

While the EU leaders are moving forward with the establishment of the permanent bail-out mechanism, their conditions are promoting great opposition against the European Union.

Gerry Adams, the leader of the Sinn Fein party is saying that if his party is entrusted with the government, he shall tell the European Union to take its money back.

Because the Irish bail-outs are nothing else than bail-outs for the German and French creditors and the Irish citizens are going to have to pay for the bankers sins.

Instead of the EU bail-outs agreement, the Irish Government should only protect the Irish depositors of the Irish Banks, not the foreign creditors.

With the establishment of the permanent mechanism the European Union also wants to establish an economic government for all the Euro Zone countries.

and that the countries must have a limit on how much debt they can contract.

The measures that have already been taken for the EU governments to submit their budgets for approval by the EU prior to presenting them to their national Parliaments approach nearer to a centralized administration of the Euro Zone.

If the proposal for the changes in the Lisbon Treaty remains as it presently is,

This means that Malta will remain bound with a guarantee of €400 million for ever,

This is one of the worst troubles that Malta entered for because of the euro.

Unemployment and poverty scares the European Union leaders

The EU leaders have already had a taste of the great popular protests in the roads of the major cities of Europe – in Paris, in Rome, in London, in Athens and even in the EU centre, Brussels.

Up to now the secret services and the security forces of the EU have always succeeded to subdue the peoples’ anger, unlike what happened in Tunisia and in Egypt.

It thus appears that the popular protests have less effect on the governments of the EU countries, notwithstanding that they are considered more representative of the popular will.

Or better that the secret services and the security forces are stronger than those of Tunisia and Egypt.

It is certain that the happenings in Tunisia and Egypt have created much concern among the European Union leaders that had not seen anything wrong in the leadership of these two countries, so much so that they used to give them a lot of aid under the EU Neighbourhood Policy.

Now the EU leaders have found out that they were not feeling the pulse of the people of Tunisia and Egypt, and are lost on how to react to the popular protests in these two countries, because they do not want the European youths and workers to be encouraged by their Arab counterparts and start protesting against the unemployment and poverty that there are in the European Union.

The EU leaders are also very concerned because they do not know whether the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt are going to lead to the Islamic fundamentalist forces to take control of those countries that would not be ready to accept what the EU wants, as happened before.

Or whether the Arab nationalist in the two countries would be hostile to the EU because it used to offer unconditional support to the leaders of the countries, as used to be done by the United States of America, without considering the democratic and protection of fundamental human rights situation in the two counties.

Some in the European Union are expecting Malta to help the leaders of the EU countries in the choice of the position that they should take on the future of Tunisia and Egypt.

But today Malta does not know what the real situation of the political forces in Tunisia and Egypt is because we no longer have the contacts and friendships that we had prior to joining the European Union.

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